I also did some swing analysis. This basically works out who would be elected if Labour's vote went down a certain percentage and all the other parties vote share went up by that same percentage.
The Current Councillors for Lewisham are:
Labour: 53
Green: 1
So, firstly here are the results from a 10% swing:
Liberal Democrats +1
Conservatives +1
Labour -2
Notice the chart in the previous post which shows Liberal Democrats in a low 6th place, yet they are among the first to regain a seat, showing how much difference an individual candidate in one ward can make. This seat would be gained by Duwayne Brooks, known for being friend of murdered Stephen Lawrence, who's mother, Doreen Lawrence, Baroness Lawrence of Clarendon, sits on the Labour benches in the House of Lords. Some may be interested to read the following news article: "Mr Brooks said Sir Steve Bullock, the incumbent mayor who will be Labour’s candidate at the election, would benefit from the event for Lady Lawrence." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... illor.html
The other seat is gained by Christine Allison from the Conservatives in Grove Park. Conservatives were in 5th place in terms of vote share in the chart.
If it is possible to get a candidate elected from parties in 5th and 6th place, it should also be possible to get an independent councillor elected in Sydenham who has the advantage of being free from any national political party affiliation.
I plan to be back to post the results of 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% swings away from Labour.