Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

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syd
Posts: 325
Joined: 23 Aug 2006 18:30
Location: lower sydenham

Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

Post by syd »

Well I was going to order a takeaway but this is quite sobering

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0877mb2

alywin
Posts: 781
Joined: 27 Aug 2009 12:33
Location: Penge side of Sydenham

Re: Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

Post by alywin »

Seriously scary. And long. Do listen to all of it.

He thinks that within a couple of weeks if the spread continues to increase we may well be in a situation where there is only one ventilator per 8 patients, and that doctors will be having to make the awful decision as to which patient gets the ventilator, and effectively which 7 patients are likely to die. He also says that currently at his hospital half the doctors (or maybe medical staff?) are self-isolating and unable to work - and that by implication not all of them will survive this pandemic.

I'm still shocked at the number of people out on the streets who seem to be paying no heed to the medical advice of keeping away from each other: I've seen groups of half-a-dozen schoolchildren, 4 or 5 young adults, just wandering along together seemingly without any cares in the world. I got on a bus today: it was virtually empty, and I sat in the last one of a set of seats. Then someone else got on, and sat in the seat immediately in front of me, rather than one a reasonable distance away. Then another man got on, and coughed a dry cough without even bothering to cover his mouth.
I got off that bus at the next stop. It's just unbelievable. And then we hear stories of people going down to the seaside and up Snowdon because it's a fine day :(

Trouble is, the government's message is too wishy-washy. We keep hearing - at least by implication - that most people will only get a mild dose of flu, and that only the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions (unspecified) are seriously affected. It needs to be emphasised that people without pre-existing conditions are also suffering badly. And then there's been the delay in shutting down theatres, cinemas, pubs and so on, as if there's no problem with us carrying on congregating in confined spaces with each other ...

syd
Posts: 325
Joined: 23 Aug 2006 18:30
Location: lower sydenham

Re: Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

Post by syd »

alywin wrote:
22 Mar 2020 01:36
Seriously scary. And long. Do listen to all of it.

He thinks that within a couple of weeks if the spread continues to increase we may well be in a situation where there is only one ventilator per 8 patients, and that doctors will be having to make the awful decision as to which patient gets the ventilator, and effectively which 7 patients are likely to die. He also says that currently at his hospital half the doctors (or maybe medical staff?) are self-isolating and unable to work - and that by implication not all of them will survive this pandemic.

I'm still shocked at the number of people out on the streets who seem to be paying no heed to the medical advice of keeping away from each other: I've seen groups of half-a-dozen schoolchildren, 4 or 5 young adults, just wandering along together seemingly without any cares in the world. I got on a bus today: it was virtually empty, and I sat in the last one of a set of seats. Then someone else got on, and sat in the seat immediately in front of me, rather than one a reasonable distance away. Then another man got on, and coughed a dry cough without even bothering to cover his mouth.
I got off that bus at the next stop. It's just unbelievable. And then we hear stories of people going down to the seaside and up Snowdon because it's a fine day :(

Trouble is, the government's message is too wishy-washy. We keep hearing - at least by implication - that most people will only get a mild dose of flu, and that only the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions (unspecified) are seriously affected. It needs to be emphasised that people without pre-existing conditions are also suffering badly. And then there's been the delay in shutting down theatres, cinemas, pubs and so on, as if there's no problem with us carrying on congregating in confined spaces with each other ...
The govt knows the truth we are faucked but the truth will send most people over the edge. Stay at home for the next 6 months

stuart
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Location: Lawrie Park
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Re: Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

Post by stuart »

Right now we are still exactly on the same track as Italy. Exactly 2 weeks behind them - as we have always been. Italy went for total enforced shutdown today. If we also did that today we would hope to do better than Italy. Otherwise the longer we wait - the worse it gets.

It's all there in the paper I referenced last week: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf The good news is Dominc Cummings is reputed to have ditched a hardline 'herd immunity' strategy for a hardline supression strategy on the basis of that paper. Boris looks to be fudging it though. A complete clown next to Sunak.

Except that paper will need updating now. Italy didn't learn enough from China, we didn't learn enough from Italy. It looks like the US didn't cotton on until way after. It's going to be even worse there methinks. The 'Chilcot Report' on all this will make tragic reading.

Stuart (in voluntary lockdown)

syd
Posts: 325
Joined: 23 Aug 2006 18:30
Location: lower sydenham

Re: Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

Post by syd »

stuart wrote:
22 Mar 2020 16:53
Right now we are still exactly on the same track as Italy. Exactly 2 weeks behind them - as we have always been. Italy went for total enforced shutdown today. If we also did that today we would hope to do better than Italy. Otherwise the longer we wait - the worse it gets.

It's all there in the paper I referenced last week: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf The good news is Dominc Cummings is reputed to have ditched a hardline 'herd immunity' strategy for a hardline supression strategy on the basis of that paper. Boris looks to be fudging it though. A complete clown next to Sunak.

Except that paper will need updating now. Italy didn't learn enough from China, we didn't learn enough from Italy. It looks like the US didn't cotton on until way after. It's going to be even worse there methinks. The 'Chilcot Report' on all this will make tragic reading.

Stuart (in voluntary lockdown)
Seeing the images of people queuing outside Tesco means it’s over, the message has not got through and many will die in the next few weeks. As for Sunak he missed an opportunity to support the self employed who will not self isolate. He will also have blood on his hands

stuart
Posts: 3311
Joined: 21 Sep 2004 10:13
Location: Lawrie Park
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Re: Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

Post by stuart »

syd wrote:
22 Mar 2020 22:13
As for Sunak he missed an opportunity to support the self employed who will not self isolate. He will also have blood on his hands
I disagree. If half of what he promised last week is delivered by March 31st it will be a miracle. The 80/20 rule is there and Sunak explicitly said he was going to follow it. At least we have one member of the cabinet stating clearly what he is going to do and why. (I wish the guy standing next to him followed suit). Are you seriously suggesting otherwise?

The virus isn't fair and different parts of our community will suffer disproportionately. The government (or at least the sensible bits of it) will do more than their best. It is really up to those in the community and business who can help fill the gaps by seeing no one starves or is evicted. Or just help to minimise the spread. There are too many not doing that.

IMHO those are the people with blood on their hands.

Stuart

syd
Posts: 325
Joined: 23 Aug 2006 18:30
Location: lower sydenham

Re: Corvid 19 reality check from an A&E Dr

Post by syd »

Yep

Sunak missed an opportunity

https://twitter.com/CeltsDirectory/stat ... 5730139136



On the one road
@CeltsDirectory
Self employed joiner turned up to site today, face mask on, trying to hide a cough.. Had to send him home, others were (rightly) pissed off. But I understand why he chanced it..

Sole earner in the family
Wife and newborn to support
Rent to pay
Next to no help for self employed
8:51 AM · Mar 23, 2020·Twitter for Android

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