Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

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JGD
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Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by JGD »

The Daily Mail reports that of the 36 areas where Covid-19 cases are RISING, 15 are in London Boroughs, all this as Leicester becomes the first place in the UK to be locked down once more after a local flare-up has been identified there.

Of these 15, Wandsworth would appear to be closest geographically to us here.

But Leicester's local authority report that they had no visibility of the crisis data until the preceding 48 hours before the close-down decision was made by HMG centrally.

There is no satisfactory explanation as to why the local authority did not have sight of that data and it questions how well informed are our own local bodies with accurate data.

It provides a real reason why we must continue to be on our guard. Take all precautions you possibly can.

A scientist commented yesterday that for all the high numbers of infections reported in the UK and the terrible number of fatalities, it is possibly the case that 90% of our Uk population has NOT been exposed to contact with the virus and if a second wave of any size arrives, there is a huge porion of our populace that has not yet encountered it.

Chart here: https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/06/30 ... 956876.jpg

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ISING.html

angela53
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by angela53 »

I stopped reading the Daily Mail as all it wants to do is to alarm and frighten people
The majority of people who catch the virus don't die
Other European countries seem to be coping with local lock downs, the country cannot shut down for ever otherwise we go bankrupt
We need to be able to live with this virus as we have in the past with polio, TB, Smallpox etc before there were vaccinations
I recommend not reading the mail and you will feel much better for it

JGD
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by JGD »

Thank you for the DM thing - I got it about that rag when I was a boy, just after I realised what the DT was.
angela53 wrote:
30 Jun 2020 14:38
Other European countries seem to be coping with local lock downs, the country cannot shut down for ever otherwise we go bankrupt
We need to be able to live with this virus as we have in the past with polio, TB, Smallpox etc before there were vaccinations
The country need not go bankrupt - we just need to take as much care as we can with our lives as we go about working and living them until we find a vaccine and roll it out - if there is one to be found.

I think I can spot scaremongering too. We need significant improvements in track and trace and better, more timely and more accurate information to help us all get through.

I lived in the tail end of days when polio and TB still took their toll on the young - sadder, harder times in many ways.

angela53
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by angela53 »

I tend to agree with you

What we need is proper protection in those food production factories, slaughterhouses, etc where the virus appears to be spreading due to people working in close contact and cold temperatures. Staff should be issued with appropriate PPE eg visors masks etc which must become the new normal in those settings

broken_shaman
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by broken_shaman »

Yeah. My dad had Polio. Spent much of his early school years in hospital and lost the use of one arm for the rest of his life. But it's ok, because he learned to live with it...

El Cid
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by El Cid »

No one knows for sure if there will be a second wave, and no one has said what "second wave" actually means anyway. How many people are we talking about? A few thousand, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or more?

Since the virus hit the UK in March, much, but not everything, of course, has been learned about its infection patterns. Leicester's had a spike (rise) in infections, but it's small, and the Government is right to try and get on top of it with a local lockdown, like has been done in Berlin, parts of Spain, and elsewhere.

As for the Daily Mail, so many of it's stories are alarmist and sensational. I sense a real nastiness and desire to stir things up in much of what it publishes. While it sometimes finds stories no one else does, it's quite a depressing read.

The Guardian, on the other hand, is so gloomy and poe-faced about everything, and also prejudiced in its news coverage, refusing to see any good in decisions made by a Conservative government. It's also racist (which some people accuse the Mail of being) when it comes to black people, making out every black person supports the organisation Black Lives Matter. It would never make that assumption about white people.

When it comes to quality journalism, both are just as bad as one another in my book.

alywin
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by alywin »

El Cid wrote:
30 Jun 2020 22:33
Leicester's had a spike (rise) in infections, but it's small, and the Government is right to try and get on top of it with a local lockdown, like has been done in Berlin, parts of Spain, and elsewhere.
Depends on your definition of "small", I think. Leicester is a little smaller, population-wise, that the Borough of Bromley, yet its spike in the last few weeks is more than half of Bromley's total since Covid struck in the first place. That's not "small", and I was disappointed to see several people implying that Leicester was being "picked on".

Agree with you about the Daily Mail, which I have been assiduously avoiding - although I have seen several quite balanced and useful reports of its (that sounds horrible grammar!) which MSN has republished.

JGD
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by JGD »

I think our poor opinions on the Daily Mail are pretty much in step collectively.

It is always interesting to see that the scope of their news coverage and the journalism behind it is very broad.

In my view it is the editorialising of every piece to include a significant and constant thread of divisiveness that genuinely makes it as bad as it is. What's weird it is not always a political driver behind it - oft times it seems that the paper's proprietors hold to a view that the old class system still exists on a broader scale than the rest of us think and they often seem to want to set class against class on some very odd issues and instances. Playing the person in whatever the game of the day is favoured by the DM. And the paper can change sides in the space of a day - someone to be praised on one day can easily be vilified on the next.

Whilst my original graphics were pure DM a lot of the other reports were corroborated from other sources.

mosy
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by mosy »

Daily Mail aside, I'm sure that a larger fault is with the government for incompetent statistic assimilation and dissemination of even those they do have.

I can't say I've noticed a flood of people out and about since Monday, which is not good for retailers but maybe more a sign that no-one has trust in the government's use of the word "safe" and are still staying at home, those who can.

JGD
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by JGD »

A narrative that is almost 10 minutes long from Led By Donkeys. It describes a timeline and it says a lot.

Some will undoubtedly see it as scaremongering.

The more sensible will see it as a warning about how ineffective HMG have been mainly because they seem to be unable to make any decision on a timeline that is crucial.

When will our putative leaders invite people into the circle who can make effective and time-critical decisions and ensure there is hard delivery based upon what situation actually exists and what is actually decided and not by the next campaign style phrase or rhetoric they can cause to be spouted out by our PM.

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/12 ... 58656?s=20

mosy
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by mosy »

In timeline terms, I don't think Johnson did much of anything until after he'd come out of ITU having caught the virus. Matt Hancock has claimed they're working round the clock, night and day, to resolve supply problems etc, seemingly in a "busy going nowhere" way. Most advice is still contradictory or doesn't stand up to reason or logic and is not made official when it should be like no fly "advice" negating insurance kicking in. Targets missed or fiddled. Favourites that will be popular are somehow deemed safe, e.g. countrywide football teams playing in close contact, yet live theatre productions which are far more locally oriented still aren't allowed despite many playhouses will go bust permanently.

It's not surprising Johnson's approval rating plummeted in last Sunday's surveys published. I don't know what will change in a government which is either oblivious to what's going on or deliberately stays blinkered. I suppose timely acquisition, distribution and use of vaccines when available will be the next cringeworthy episode.

syd
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by syd »

Hey all, well it seems like the 2nd wave will be brutal as nothing has changed since lockdown and masks are not mandatory in public. 148 real people with friends and family died a horrible death yesterday but my neighbours had a massive party.

The numbers are going back up but many think it’s over. I

El Cid
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by El Cid »

The number of new cases reported in the borough of Lewisham for the week of 29 June - July 5 was just 3. It's a similar story in Bromley and Southwark. Of course, the virus is still around, so we all need to maintain social distancing, wash our hands, and wear face coverings on public transport. But there's no evidence of a second wave, so far. No one has a crystal ball, but my hunch is that we'll see spikes here and there, like in Leicester, rather than the kind of numbers we saw reported in April.

syd
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by syd »

El Cid wrote:
12 Jul 2020 10:34
The number of new cases reported in the borough of Lewisham for the week of 29 June - July 5 was just 3. It's a similar story in Bromley and Southwark. Of course, the virus is still around, so we all need to maintain social distancing, wash our hands, and wear face coverings on public transport. But there's no evidence of a second wave, so far. No one has a crystal ball, but my hunch is that we'll see spikes here and there, like in Leicester, rather than the kind of numbers we saw reported in April.
I hope you’re right. Where did you find those stats? I’ve looked online and I could find the numbers for Lewisham.

This is an interesting article.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/hist ... -it-covid/

JGD
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by JGD »

In short. HMG has been unable to demonstrate it can report and publish accurate numbers upon which we can rely.

At nations level and at local authority level numbers appear to vary depending on who is making the announcement, in what circumstances and in which form. Politicians say one thing, science and medicine people say something different, local authorities at the end of a long chain are left to make the best of sometimes partial and incomplete data provided to them.

The Office for National Statistics appears to be in permanent state of admonishment of PM and Cabinet members who report inaccurate numbers or apply data inappropriately with the specific intent of placing their own spin on it.

Even today Gove in interviews was caught out in what frankly was a lie, where HMG over-reported the number of tests that they claimed had had been conducted in the order of 200,000 tests which had NOT been carried out. On being confronted and playing the .."didn't hear the question, ask me again", ploy he reverted to the "I haven't seen that particular report" pretence. Viewers would be left with a distinct sense that he knew damned well HMG had been caught because in every probability he was party to the collective Cabinet presentation of the inflated numbers.

Second wave or second spike - we are no better off than we were in February when these hapless individuals in the Cabinet and who form HMG, led by a PM who is a proven liar and fraudster with limited ability and disqualifying flaws, turned a blind eye to the realities of the data being reported from round the world.

Make yourself as safe as you feel you should.

El Cid
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by El Cid »

I obtained the figures for Lewisham from the BBC web site. You simply enter the name of your borough and the stats come up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

I agree that it has been difficult trying to work out the real figures, as you have ONS, NHS and Public Health England providing often conflicting numbers.

It's easy to criticise the Government. I think whoever was in office would have struggled, given we've never had to deal with this kind of situation in living memory. Balancing measures to protect public health with keeping the economic life of the country going is an unenviable job.

I think, however, we are now in a much better position to handle any spikes in the virus than we were at the start of all this. Local lockdown is the answer.

syd
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by syd »

El Cid wrote:
12 Jul 2020 15:45
I obtained the figures for Lewisham from the BBC web site. You simply enter the name of your borough and the stats come up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

I agree that it has been difficult trying to work out the real figures, as you have ONS, NHS and Public Health England providing often conflicting numbers.

It's easy to criticise the Government. I think whoever was in office would have struggled.
Hey thanks for the link. I believe the govt is still pushing the Eugenicists dream of herd immunity. There is no way Cummings would miss this once in a lifetime opportunity to prove his theory. This is his olympics and he’ll sacrifice anyone including the blond bombsite and this is why Rishi Sunak has been allowed to develop his own independent brand.

Sunak will be the next pm probably after the winter flu season when the death count will be over 100k

JGD
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Re: Lockdown Easement: WHO warn the worst is yet to come

Post by JGD »

I know of some extremely sad and very regrettable events locally, the passing of some people before their time and the recovery of many more thankfully.

None of that knowledge is directly observed. It is information shared by loved ones, friends, acquaintances and colleagues.

This picture will be very similar to the experience of the many and all of our sympathies must be directed to those who have lost ones they loved.

The very direct point is this - first hand, we can only see a very limited picture and we only know the scale of this pandemic from official reports of the spread of the disease, its geography and and what progress is being made in terms of its containment and the ultimate discovery and roll-out of an effective vaccine.

Our dependence on these sources requires the delivery of truthful reports with accurate information given to us in a timely fashion, free of political spin. There will be honest errors made but there must be an elimination of the types of information that is in the politically wishful style of , "...this is where we wanted to be and me and my Cabinet colleagues are working night and day to deliver a great success to you...".
JGD wrote:
30 Jun 2020 14:04
A scientist commented yesterday that for all the high numbers of infections reported in the UK and the terrible number of fatalities, it is possibly the case that 90% of our UK population has NOT been exposed to contact with the virus and if a second wave of any size arrives, there is a huge portion of our populace that has not yet encountered it.
It is entirely probable we have a long road yet to travel.

It can be accepted that this is a uniquely terrible situation and there is a lot to be learned - and learned quickly. The situation is not helped in any way at all when the first reaction of HMG was to reach for the idiots guide to managing propaganda.

Evidenced by the stark contrast of the plain, simple and reasonably accurate reports delivered daily by an empathetic Nicola Sturgeon (not always error-free though) and the fudged, fiddled and frequently back-tracked guff we see broadcast by our UK PM and his Cabinet, we deserve and need so much improvement in performance and delivery.

Primarily, we need not to be lied to at all.

ETA: A comparator piece from May-time gaining fresh legs today in the media sphere.

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/stat ... 25217?s=20

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