Happy New Year

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Sydenham
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Happy New Year

Post by Sydenham »

Happy New Year to all - hope 2021 brings some joy to each and everyone of us.
Robin Orton
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Re: Happy New Year

Post by Robin Orton »

Hear hear.
JGD
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Location: Perry Hill, SE6 (yup - that's Bellingham Ward which includes Bell Green and is outside Sydenham)
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Re: Happy New Year

Post by JGD »

Sydenham wrote: 27 Dec 2020 19:42 Happy New Year to all - hope 2021 brings some joy to each and everyone of us.
Wishing you all the best from your neighbours in Bellingham Ward.

It is with increasing certainty now that, as we see two vaccine streams in play, the point at which we become safer as a populace, we can see the beginning of an end to this pandemic. May there be many more types of vaccines approved in 2021.

An interesting web-site - not authorised or endorsed by HMG - calculates at this point in time that as I am a new entrant to the third priority group in 2020, there are still 9-12m people ahead of me in the queue for vaccination. This forecasts therefore that I will not be vaccinated before the early weeks of March 2021. Friends in the next group in the hierarchy are being forecast for vaccination in early summer 2021.

Will review this as new streams of vaccines come online.

Be safe everyone.
stuart
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Re: Happy New Year

Post by stuart »

Happy New Year from t'other end of Sydenham. And I bring tidings of almost joy!

Figures release today (supposedly up to 28th December) show infection test rates in Lewisham and the surrounding boroughs stabilising at last. OK at appallingly high figures but bucking exponential growth is a real prize nowadays. That's exactly a week since Tier 4 was imposed. Which suggests it may be working. It's always harder driving rates down than letting 'em rip so I hope the politicos have the nerve to keep going and drive it down to an acceptable figure.

I did a quick zip around the country which showed an almost universal upward curve for the Tier 3 areas. Thankfully that will be halted when a week or so has passed for those elevated to Tier 4 on Boxing Day to not be developing symptoms.

The handy tool is on this page (check out the 7 day moving averages and the timeshift in the plus 60s aquiring infection from the under sixties):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Sydenham Syd
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Re: Happy New Year

Post by Sydenham Syd »

Interestingly enough, I see very little difference between the high st when it was tier 3 and now in tier 4. Same number of people on the high st and seemingly the same shops etc open.
Not sure I get it tbh
alywin
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Re: Happy New Year

Post by alywin »

stuart wrote: 2 Jan 2021 14:39Figures release today (supposedly up to 28th December) show infection test rates in Lewisham and the surrounding boroughs stabilising at last. OK at appallingly high figures but bucking exponential growth is a real prize nowadays.
Really? Well, that's comforting, because when I last looked, a few days ago, infections in Bromley Borough had shot up by something like 50% in a very short space of time - not far behind Croydon :(
stuart
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Re: Happy New Year

Post by stuart »

The figures are not as good as I hoped 3 days ago. But not totally invalidated. I'm working flat out today but I'll try and post some factual (ie graphs) tonight to support or destroy my thesis with today's figures.

Stuart
stuart
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Re: Happy New Year

Post by stuart »

Ok, here are my latest observation just using the borough cases published here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

First my thesis that Tier 4 was working. If we look at Kent - the first to experience the new variant surge and first into Tier 4. I've taken Swale. The graph shape is very similar to Canterbury, Tunbridge and other Kent districts:

Image

The takeaway from this shows old variant infections rising up to the first hump - lockdown 2. It worked -well almost until new variant which started here pushed it up fast. It became the first area to break the 1000 infections barrier. Tier 4 then arrested the rise and it shows a successful downward direction. So Tier 4 worked for them. But note that uptick at the end. More on that later.

We now look at Lewisham - though graphs for Bromley and Southwark are, again, very similar:

Image

Kent's first hump is less pronounced here. But the rise post lockdown is more pronounced as we were generally a couple of weeks and a tier or two behind Swale. A disaster. Compare that with, say Tunbridge This had lower infections than Swale was forced into Tier 4 and likewise had its rate capped. Whereas it was around the same as Lewisham it is now half.

A more convincing arguement against those who blindly argue for greater granularity I cannot find. Nevertheless that pause in the increase at the end of Christmas week was marked.

Another arguement for Tier 4 working could be found with the places that stayed in Tier 3 until Boxing Day. I take Birmingham as an example. Again neighbouring authorities show very close correlation:

Image

The difference is the pause in Lewisham's figures around Christmas didn't happen. Then one week later we get the ffallout from not banning Christmas get-togethers. Any Tier 4 benefit is yet to show.

Which is why 3 days ago I was quite bullish that Tier 4 was working and with Lockdown 3 keeping schools closed the hump would complete and we would follow Kent down.

But we now have that pesky uptick in Swale and Lewisham. Well perhaps Christmas was not as well as observed as it should have been. Maybe the extra oscillations caused by trying to record over or around Bank holidays. Worrying. The next week will tell us which way we are headed. But to get anywhere we need lockdown 3. Not only in law but in methodical personal practice if we are to start pressing the numbers down.

Remember these are infections - not hospital admissions which are generally a week later. Even with stabilsation it will mean the number of patients in hospital will continue to rise because releases/deaths lag around two weeks after that.

HTH,
Stuart
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