Are House Prices in Sydenham Stagnating?

The place for serious discussion, announcements and breaking news about Sydenham
kenny karzi
Posts: 12
Joined: 30 Aug 2005 20:47
Location: East Sussex

Post by kenny karzi »

kster - May I ask why you think why the Interest rate will "max out" at 6%

Our currency is over valued, and the national debt is the highest it's ever been. Speculating on things like interest rates is a dangerous thing, but I'm confident in saying that the current trend is most definitely UP.

Now, with first time buyers paying out STUPID amounts of money and (i can only assume) stretching themselves to get on "the ladder" what’s going to happen when they go to renew their mortgages at a higher interest rate? The bank of England controls the market, nobody else does, and they have lent out lots and lots of money.

If you lent me a £100,000 over 25yrs would you want it back ?

and would you want interest of that ?

or how about this ........ I'll Lend you £100,000 to buy a house over 25yrs and about 5-10yrs of you making payments to me I’ll increase the interest rate to an unaffordable level. Then not only will i have had all the payments you've made to me, but I’ll have your house as well.

Miss a few payments on your mortgage and you will soon find out who the "owner" is.

I'm sorry if this sounds a little cold, and please do not take offence, but at the age of 19 i moved from the place of my birth because my parents relocated to Hastings. And now I’m priced out of the town of my birth, so forgive me if i sound a little bitter.

I personally would advise CAUTION regarding the future of house prices.




"House prices are only a matter of opinion, whereas debt is real" - Mervyn King - Governor of the Bank of England
user100
Posts: 194
Joined: 13 Dec 2006 11:47
Location: Sydenham

Post by user100 »

randomv wrote:a bit of research shows that a decent 2 bed flat in SE26 has now gone right through the 250k mark
Sorry but if you mean that the average (mean or median) price of a decent 2 bed flat is now greater than 250k, IMHO that is incorrect.

I would say that most 2 double bed flats in decent condition would be more like 200k.

I know they are more expensive than they used to be but let's not get carried away.

I believe only a small *percentage* of buyers of 2 bed flats in Sydenham are having to pay above the 250k stamp duty threshold. I think that this would only happen for ones that are exceptionally large / luxurious / well located.

You could get a purpose built, non-local authority, 2 double bedroom flat, in good condition on a very good road in sydenham for 190k or less.

Remember, asking price is not the same as selling price.
user100
Posts: 194
Joined: 13 Dec 2006 11:47
Location: Sydenham

Post by user100 »

kenny karzi wrote:kster - May I ask why you think why the Interest rate will "max out" at 6%

Our currency is over valued, and the national debt is the highest it's ever been. Speculating on things like interest rates is a dangerous thing, but I'm confident in saying that the current trend is most definitely UP.

If our currency is overvalued, then why would that imply that interest rates will go up further? Surely, *if anything*, the opposite would be a more logical implication?

IMHO, I doubt very much if interest rates will go much above 6% in the current cycle.
kenny karzi
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Joined: 30 Aug 2005 20:47
Location: East Sussex

Post by kenny karzi »

There’s a lot more intelligent people would could advise you regarding Currency speculation than myself, and I’ll openly admit that I only have a basic understanding of it, if I had a comprehensive understanding of it... I'd be working in the City

My grasp on it is it makes our country bad for exporting, and good for importing goods/services.... do you think this is good for the people of this country?.... we all need to work remember, we all need employment. if we import more than we export our money leaves the country. So how do we pay these debts?

What do you think the Bank of England could possibly do.

Keep money in the country by raising interest rates to keep the UK competitive and reducing the risk of inflation, which simultaneously would also call back in lots of money that has been lent out at a higher rate of interest thus making the Bank of England even more money.

OR

Keep interest rates low and issuing loads more money thus causing inflation and seeing the value of OUR money in our pockets become more worthless year by year, and keep the good people of the UK fuelling the property market even further by borrowing even more money.


but getting back on topic here, the way i see it is that the Maths do not add up.... and money has recently been free and easy. Have you not noticed all the TV adverts trying to convert existing non-secured debt into "Home-owner" Loans ?

It's not just Sydenham............. this is country wide !!!!

Hence, why my personal opinion is to err on the side of caution.
user100
Posts: 194
Joined: 13 Dec 2006 11:47
Location: Sydenham

Post by user100 »

Raising interest rates is one of the simplest ways to make your currency stronger i.e. higher in value against other currencies. It also has the general effect of dampening inflation.

Back on topic, I totally agree that there is a lot of credit out there, it is crazy but anyone who sat on the sidelines 6 or 7 years ago waiting for the much-predicted crash would still be sitting on the sidelines watching the property ladder's bottom rung being lifted way out of reach.

Hindsight is 20:20.

Changing demographics and household sizes, and an influx of young people from Eastern Europe is supporting demand, and supply is not really being augmented, so prices are continuing to go up.

I personally regret not buying much sooner, but eventually, whether bravely or foolishly, I got on board. Now I wish I had bought bigger !

It is hard to know what will happen to property generally, but back on topic, I think Sydenham still represents good value and long term is likely to match or even outperform similarly priced areas.
sydenham Don
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Joined: 2 Nov 2004 13:07
Location: Newlands Park

Post by sydenham Don »

I agree, I think Sydenham will stay at the market average or outperform. It is one of the only places in london where you can still get decent property for a relatively cheap price, and that is what we are talking about, relative price. Compared to East Dulwich and even parts of Crystal palace, the housing stock at a relative price is superior - we have a decent pub here, a great high street, and trains into london in 20 mins (and a seat more often than not, the same cannot be said if you get on at E Dulwich, Brockley or even forest hill these days!)

One thing that has really suprised me in the last 6 months is the increased number of younger proffessionals getting on at Sydenham station, and clearly there is demand for what some may deem 'gentrified' estabs such as The Dolphin, a new coffee shop etc. Look at this site, and look at the Dolphin on a sunday lunch.

The demography is changing in Sydenham, and london for that matter. KK - I share your concern re family - I come from Wimbledon and I am telling you there is no way I will ever be able to afford a house back there - my family re-located too. This is about market forces, and the British obsession to own / invest in property with high gearing. This is not similar in France or other european countries where renting is commonplace, amongst the young and old.

If you look objectively at what Sydenham has to offer you can see why it is becoming more attractive.
kenny karzi
Posts: 12
Joined: 30 Aug 2005 20:47
Location: East Sussex

Post by kenny karzi »

sydenham Don wrote:If you look objectively at what Sydenham has to offer you can see why it is becoming more attractive.
I fully agree with where you are coming from, If you compare Sydenham with ANY town towards London travel zone 1 on a comparison basis Sydenham measures up very well... ok it's never going to be as nice as say Dulwich, but for value it more than makes up for it.

To me it seems to be perfectly sandwiched in between the Grotty Inner-city areas and the very affluent suburbs, so therefore is very competitively priced for a town in London. But this doesn't mean that prices are guaranteed to rise !!!

Roll back to some of the previous comments made in this thread regading the price rises that have already happened in Sydenham and you will find some (what i would class as) unfounded throwaway comments like "I can imagine prices continuing to rise steadily for the nxt 2/3 years in this area" & "That’s great news to hear that there is money to be made here" which I really do not agree with.

Hopefully I have provided some food for thought..
kster
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Joined: 20 Jul 2005 20:45
Location: Sydenham

Post by kster »

“kster - May I ask why you think why the Interest rate will "max out" at 6%” Yes you may and the answer is: The general consensus of economists is that this year they will max at 5.75 or perhaps 6% - I’m taking my lead from them and I don’t see any reason at the moment why they would be too far out, obviously barring an unexpected catastrophy. Personally I hope they don’t get to 6% and the news this morning about high street spending makes that less likely in the near/mid term.

With regards to currency fluctuation and interest rates, don’t forget that when Gordon Brown made the Bank of England independent he set them just the one target (i.e. to control inflation). Therefore the value of our currency is not a target and will not explicitly effect the Interest Rate decision, and this forum is not the place to discuss inflationary effect of a strong currency.

Getting back towards topic. Feel free to be cautious about property prices, but during the last 200 years there have been only a handful of cases when buying property has lost real money over a 10 year period (and lets face it, unless you are adding value by doing renovations then property should be a long term purchase and not a vehicle for short term profit). I can’t see how Sydenham, which has thus far enjoyed respectable growth, could turn out to be one of those cases in the future. Unless you are predicting that London will be laid to waste like the great dust bowls of America during the great depression.

Sydenham will always be an area of mixed affluence, which will mean that housing will always be more affordable and prices will not sky rocket as much as in our neighbouring middleclass ghettos, but they will keep pace(ish) with the average London market.
nork1
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Joined: 9 Jul 2006 12:49
Location: Banned myself - can't be bothered with the Greg/Ulysses show anymore

Post by nork1 »

Who cares if house prices are going through the roof or dropping like a stone? Why not just make what you've got your home and be happy with it?
kenny karzi
Posts: 12
Joined: 30 Aug 2005 20:47
Location: East Sussex

Post by kenny karzi »

kster wrote: The general consensus of economists is that this year they will max at 5.75 or perhaps 6% - I’m taking my lead from them ..............

........ and this forum is not the place to discuss inflationary effect of a strong currency.
But it seems to be a place where people are able to express their opinions regarding house prices as long as they are in a positive light which in my opinion could well sway a naïve ftb from “POSSIBLY” making the very biggest mistake of their lives, there are a lot of views and opinions that need to be taken into account here, and I think we are hardly scratching the surface. I personally think that the inflationary affect is more pertinent now than ever as we are discussing about stagnating prices within this thread.

But a long as you are taking the lead from the top 50 economists in the country I’ll leave you with this.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/119df8e2-9ebd-1 ... e2340.html

"Only one economist out of 50 polled last week by Reuters thinks the MPC will follow up last year's two rate rises, which have taken the Bank's main rate to 5 per cent, with another one when its two-day conclave ends on Thursday" - and we all know what happened next.


Interest rates are up from 3.5% to 5.25% in just under 3 ½ years. If you have any solid information what Interest rates will be doing in the next 3 ½ years…… Well I’m all ears, I personally would appreciate your opinion, and if you do not want to discuss this on the boards then please feel free to pm me.

Let’s just hope for all our sakes they don’t go too much higher.
leenewham
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Post by leenewham »

I'm looking for somewhere in Sydenham and thereis very little on the market below 300,000.

Unless your house is near Bell Green or past Kent House and in a very poor state and needs £30-40,000spending on it you WILL NOT get a house below 300,000.

I have been tracking prices in the area. Lots of places have been snapped up, done up and sold on with incredible profits. Thereisn't much coming onto the market at the moment (traditionally there isn't at this time of year anyway,holiday etc).

If anyone knows of any property for sale that isn't normally on the various 'finda property' dot com websites let me know!
kenny karzi
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Joined: 30 Aug 2005 20:47
Location: East Sussex

Post by kenny karzi »

I think you need to look harder m8 ;)

There are places to be found

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/postcode/se26
leenewham
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Post by leenewham »

Property snake lists property that i on the market and isnt selling.

having been lookin for a number of weeks, period houses in Sydenham up to 300,000 sell within a week or two for VERY close to the asking price. My flat in Brockley sold in 2 hours, it had 10 viewings on the first day, I get letter though my letterbox from people who didn't get to oew it and want to know if the sale falls through. Trust me, I am looking VERY hard. Property snake is NOT the full picture. Good property sells VERY quickly. Some property is over priced, mostly by vendors not taking the Estate Agents advice. That's what you are seing on property snake.
kenny karzi
Posts: 12
Joined: 30 Aug 2005 20:47
Location: East Sussex

Post by kenny karzi »

Well I remember viewing this site long before the estate agents "pulled the plug"

http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/site/news

The properties on that site are ONLY the ones that have been advertised on line by an estate agent and then had their prices lowered. Some clever dick wrote a program that could capture the information from web pages being updated...... ( so don't ask me how it works - but they obviously REALLY upset all the estate agents which made me smile)

I guess it's all down to what you believe at the end of the day, people always have to make up their own minds. Property is increasing by approximately 0.1% per month now, and when that’s measured against inflation, technically that’s a loss in my opinion.

All I can say is "Think long and hard" and if you don't know what a CDO is, find out, and what the possible implications of them are.

Good luck !!!
leenewham
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Post by leenewham »

House prices are slowing.

If you want your house to be an investment only and want to sell in one months time then you are right. If you want your house to be a home, and will live in it for a number of years, then it's much better than renting AND you will make money from it later as in the long term bricks and motar have always been a good investment. If the market goes down your next property will go down as well as your house, and vice versa.

I don't really care that much about that. I wan't somewhere to live, somewhere to make a home and possibly have some role in the local community to make a small difference somehow. I'm not an investor!

What is your point anyway? Don't buy a house?
kenny karzi
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Joined: 30 Aug 2005 20:47
Location: East Sussex

Post by kenny karzi »

I've no intention of buying a house !!!!

But my point is simple

If you are a first time buyer, beware of people who only talk up the market. Taking on to much debt can seriously damage a person’s future.

If you're on the ladder it doesn't really matter if they go up down of sideways

Now, Being priced out of the town of my birth, I know Sydenham has lost at least one Hard working, Tax paying, Law abiding member of the community. The question I would like to ask is How many more people have had to leave their birth place due to the cost of housing ?

I grew up in Sydenham, and I know of only a handful of friends and only 4 members of my family who are still there 20yrs later.


I always thought a town's character was defined by it's people, maybe this is what Sydenham is becoming, a place full of people who have had to move there from more affluent towns.
leenewham
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Post by leenewham »

Unfortunately Sydenham house prices have goneup so much it seems I cant afford it any more. Places are sellign before I can even get into see them or are going for more than the asking price. Above 300,000 some places are struggling. Below they are flying off the shelves.

I need to win the lottery. It's not just first time buyers who are struggling.
fentiman
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Joined: 22 Feb 2008 06:54
Location: Western Australia

Post by fentiman »

How's the market now?
sophie
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Post by sophie »

DaveT
Posts: 70
Joined: 9 Nov 2004 16:10
Location: Sydenham

house price site that does not need registration

Post by DaveT »

Hiya,

lots of house price sites out there, but

http://www.nethouseprices.com/

is currently free of registration - search to your hearts content with no spam risk!
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